March 9th, 2026

This is definitely the most interesting year that I’ve done this forecast. The SAG, ACE, and WGA awards tightened the race in the final weeks to now the prediction is pretty simple. There’s about a 50% chance that One Battle After Another wins. There’s about a 33% chance Sinners wins. Which leaves about a 17% chance that any of the other eight movies win Best Picture. Putting it another way: You have a side-sided die. If you roll a 1, 2, or 3, then OBAA wins. If you roll a 4 or 5, Sinners wins. If you roll a 6, then one of the other films wins. When you put it that way, things feel wide open.

And so, my official prediction would be for One Battle After Another to win—while noting that there is a whole lot of uncertainty going into this weekend.

February 23rd, 2025

After the SAG and ASC awards last night, we’ve reached the end of the schedule: The only thing left is the Academy Awards, coming up this Sunday. The ASC matters little to the model, and the most predictive award from the SAG awards is the one for ensemble, which went to Conclave (upping it’s chances from 0.01% to 0.08%).

The final prediction for Best Picture is Anora.