I’m back with the Oscars Best Picture model, albeit a little late. I had a busy holiday season, but the story of December was surprising: The Secret Agent was the favorite, followed by One Battle After Another. This was largely due to The Secret Agent’s runtime, which is right in the sweet spot for Best Picture winners.

However, remember from the last two years that my model is assuming these movies have been nominated for Best Picture. The biggest barrier facing The Secret Agent is being nominated; it is a non-English language film. While the only non-English language film to win has been Parasite (2019), the nominations are rare enough that, given that the film has been nominated, having no English dialogue isn’t a barrier. The DGA and PGA nominations make me think The Secret Agent won’t be nominated…